Shortwave Comeback-Ukraine/Russia Discussion

Wow! Those are some seriously dark (Reddit) comments which make me somewhat regret sharing this source. I might edit my previous post a little.
When I watched some recent interviews, the people he was talking to seemed quite genuine as they gave harrowing accounts of their own experiences.
@Polyphemus, I do agree with you when it comes to your comments regarding there being an “information war” so I tend to dig about trying to see what I can learn.
I want to make it clear I take no sides in any of this horrible business. I only recently found this ‘independent’ & don’t know any more about him than my impressions from the recent conflict interviews.

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I do take sides, though that’s not so much based on current news sources (news are horribly unreliable in a war zone. That’s pretty much any news, always, even if the source is trusted).
But you can look at the history to get an understanding of the conflict, all the way back to 91. although the really interesting part doesn’t start happening until the early 2010s, the history before that is kinda important to understand just how much the Ukraine has picked itself up in recent years.
When you’re through with that, I suggest some study of the Bosnian war in the 90ies. It’s not really an analogy since Bosnia wasn’t an independent state before the war, but the main focus here is pattern matching. Study the rhetoric and justifications of Serbian nationalists at the time, and their strategies to provoke civil unrest, and contrast and compare to what has been happening in Ukraine since the 2010s.

Once you’re through with all of that, there won’t really be much doubt about who the bad guy is here…

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Like @Polyphemus , it is difficult to see a single individual as someone not prone to cohersion at the least. Russia is well known for taking a lone person and forcing them to report what they want reported. I am sure that has been true in other wars as well.
My approach to coverage is to have multiple sources that have been reliable over many years and then I cross-check what they are saying. If the majority are reporting at least the same general facts, that would indicate truthfulness. A lone person’s story cannot be easily verified and it can be hard to verify who may be pulling their strings.
Like @jedidia stated, when 140 nations at the UN vote to condemn Russia, we can be fairly confident who the offender is.

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I absolutely agree. I was simply sharing something (& as I said earlier I somewhat regret it…almost to the point of deleting the post).
It seems the people of these areas have spent centuries fighting, shifting borders & oppressing the little people & generally being horrible to each other.
I hate that it happens still.

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Actually, you’ve raised a really important point, you made me think, made me re-evaluate, and made me do some digging. All of which was a valuable experience.

As I said in a earlier post, I supported the war in Iraq. It was only afterwards that I discovered the extent to which I’d been I’d been misled about the reasons for the war. None of us are immune to propaganda.

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I think we could all dig harder & endeavour to learn more than what a simple internet search gives us.
There is so much misinformation & cleverly designed influencing propaganda thrown in our faces from every media source, it’s easy to not see it after a while. Even the ‘reputable’ sources are undeniably biased. It can be very hard to get a truly accurate story you can fully believe.

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The Russians are currently saying that the civilian bodies found in Bucha are the result of a staged propaganda campaign by the Ukrainians, aided by western journalists. They are saying there were no civilian casualties during the Russian occupation, and that everyone was well when the Russian troops left.

However, satellite photographs were taken of the town during the Russian occupation - and the bodies can clearly be seen in the streets.

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Let’s not forget that the Wagner group may be involved, mercenaries who kill for the joy of killing. They need no ‘cause’.
Also, Russia has a well known track record of killing civilians.

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It seems to be a matter of policy that these sorts of governments just deny everything.

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How else could you convince an army and a nation that you need to go to war when there is no just cause?
It is just so ‘unreal’ to believe that lies of this magnitude can be told and believed. But when you shut a country down, close them off from the rest of the world, this is what happens. That is why conversation and debate is a good thing.
My personal perspective, all of this death on both sides and for what? So Putin can have control of the sea? To leave a ‘mark’ on his time in control? (he can check that box) In the end, in most of these cases, it is arrogant ego. An unwillingness to let go of power. And Russia had come such a long way in working with other nations. Now it is in ruins and what could have been Putin’s legacy, bringing Russia to the table with economic growth, is now in tatters.

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Honestly, when at war, that policy applies to pretty much all governments. There is no such thing as an “honest war”, because information is a weapon like any other.

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UK and US and several other news sources report seeing Russian soldiers with crematorium trucks to cover up the dead they are leaving in their wake. It won’t work. Satellite video is being gathered and is very damning.

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In the initial phases of the invasion, the Russians thought they had won. Because they were occupying territory they thought they were going to keep, they didn’t bother to hide any evidence of war crimes. Who was going to see it?

Then they had to withdraw in a panic, in the face of advancing Ukrainian defence forces, and the evidence got left behind. The resulting outrage has caused major reactions, both in NATO and the rest of the world. It’s been yet another public relations disaster for Putin.

I suspect there are two consequences of this.

One, the Russian army units directly responsible for the Bucha killings will never be seen again. They will all officially have suffered heroic deaths in the defence of Mother Russia. Putin will not want any surviving witnesses.

Two, in future, the Russians will be much more careful about the evidence they leave. They have already established concentration camps inside Russia for kidnapped Ukrainian civilians. If there are to be further cases of civilian rape, torture, or murder, that’s where they’ll be. Far beyond the reach of the western press.

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I don’t think they care what evidence they leave. The world knows they’ve committed war crimes. Nobody is prepared to take this war to Russia itself. The threat of nuclear escalation is the overriding factor here.

How are they ever going to be held accountable? Even their generals are disposable in the long run. Collateral damage.

The rest of the world can condemn Putin’s actions forever, but unless someone is actually prepared to face that threat of nuclear war and do something about Putin, they’ll get away with it.

I know it’s an unpopular opinion and not what people want to hear, but isn’t it the truth?

What the West needs to do now is to concentrate on what will happen once the Ukrainian situation is over. What if Putin wins? What if he doesn’t? Will they negotiate successfully and what are the repercussions after that?

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That’s the million dollar question isn’t it? Putin cares nothing for how his own people suffer so how do you pressure him into admitting defeat? Well, you don’t and I think everyone knows that. I keep hearing “years” when they talk about this war. Heartbreaking and frustrating. In many countries, the plan would be to make the people so angry, they overthrow their leader. Not sure that will happen either though, there are exiled Russian oligarchs who say it could happen by those closest to him. Putin is obviously aware of this so he keeps himself isolated…I hate to have to agree with the “years” prediction but, that may be the sad reality and we are all going to have to ride it out, like it or not.

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What pains me is that I cannot picture a solution. There is no polite excuse left with which they could withdraw, the damage is done. They used to have an economy but there are no western customers left willing to buy from them. There is no second constructive person who could take over leadership and save the day. There is no constructive form of government that could pull Russia together (unless someone has a benevolent dictator up their sleeve). :pensive:

How long did it take to squash Nazi Germany? And then, how long after that did it take until the Germans faced the camps and admitted they were real, and how long after that until they rebuilt, and how long after that until other countries trusted Germany again? Add that together and that’s the minimum time. :pensive:

“Overthrow the leader” and replace him by whom? … Garri Kasparow for president?

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Actually, Kasparow might not be a bad choice. But failing that, there are lots of credible opposition figures in Russia. True, most of them are in prison at the moment, but if Putin were toppled, it would only take the stroke of a pen to free them. Democracy was very active in Russia, until Putin so brutally suppressed it.

For example, I cannot even imagine how brave and determined Navalny must be. I have been in some dangerous situations myself - but his actions show a level of courage beyond anything I know. And Navalny is only one of dozens.

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They’re not exactly “getting away with it” right now. The sanctions brought them to the brink of insolvency already. In the long run, the question is how much damage the stakeholders are willing to put up with (of which the russian people are certainly a significant one, but there’s also the oligarchs, hell, even the bloody Russian Mafia to consider here).
Also, the morale of russian troops has started out miserable, and hasn’t gotten any better. What’ll happen if there isn’t any actual money left to pay them with? Sure, they can print some, and that’ll work maybe for a couple of months until inflation kicks everyone in the face…

Also, the problem with the threat of nuclear war is of course that you cannot just have someone deciding to face it… By definition, everyone is facing it, even neutral parties.

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A peek behind the new iron curtain

This cartoon from c. 1945 applies once again

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