Shortwave Comeback-Ukraine/Russia Discussion

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I already got a letter preparing us for the new prices. :-/ I work in a EU country where all natural gas for heating comes from Russian owned providers. First the news didnā€™t mention it and just agreed with the sanctions. Some politician then felt inspired to emphasise that nobody should worry, what ever happens, the gas reserves will lastā€¦ for at least three months! (Uh. Thatā€™s not really much?) And when thatā€™s gone, theyā€™ll simply buy gas from third-parties! ā€¦ Is this guy serious? :person_facepalming:

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80 mph wind and tornadoes headed my way. Headed to the basement with my go bag. I feel for all those in Ukraine who have been trying to live this way for a month.

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Russian oil tankers are going dark, turning off transponders to hide their activity.

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In response to a couple of the earlier posts:
I strongly encourage anybody who feels vulnerable due to the fragility of modern societal infrastructure, to take it upon themselves to ensure that their personal health, skills & assets are of a standard that; should you one day wake up & everything has gone crazy, you are capable of maintaining your own well-being & also that of those close to you.

To me, high altitude EMP is the worst case (survivable) scenario & very unlikely but if a person was prepared for that, then the regular emergencies like storms, floods & wildfires would be much less intimidating.
Being Prepared is just common sense.

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It is what it is unless it isnā€™tā€¦ :grin:

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Something else occurred to me after further reading. Solar powered chargers, crank torches and crank radios would be useless unless protected by an antistatic bag. Anything with modern electronics, from what I understand, would be toast.

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I am having 1980ā€™s flashbacks. All those moviesā€¦in the meantimeā€¦
Ukraine managed to get a helicopter 20 miles inside Russia and hit a fuel depot and make it safely back to Ukraine. While a humiliating blow to Russia, it will also definitely provoke a response.
If you can find it, watch the 1983 The Day After. Will scare the s#@! out of you.

I have a full, clean copy if anyone is interested.

Meanwhile,
Russian forces are using banned anti-personnel mines to cover its tactical retreat in Ukraine, according to a report from Human Rights Watch.

Russiaā€™s use of these mines shows they know theyā€™ve been defeated in the region and donā€™t plan another assault on Kyiv, according to an expert from the Institute for the Study of War.

ā€œIf youā€™re laying mines all over the place it does suggest that you donā€™t think youā€™re going to be back there any time soon,ā€ Frederick Kagan, a military scholar from the Institute for the Study of War, told Insider.

According to Kagan, Ukrainian troops had already defeated the Russian offensive on Kyiv and begun their own counter-offensive to push Russian troops back. Kagan said Russiaā€™s announcement that it would pull troops out of Ukraineā€™s capital was ā€œcoverā€ to gain political capital after having to concede to defeat in Kyiv.

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Ukrainian forces re-occupying territory around Kiev are finding mass graves of civilians. Some civilians had their hands tied before they were killed.

The worst scenes in this video have been blurred out. Nevertheless, it may not be suitable for the squeamish.

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Mass graves are becoming common. There are now some calling for an immediate arrest warrant to be issued for Putin.

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Got any Russian equipment just sitting around? Reward to all Russian soldiers handing over anything from trucks to warships. $10,000 to $1mil

Yahoo News: A former Russian official now working with an opposition leader says Putin could lose his grasp on power in a few months.

Something that concerns me now, if Putin gains coastline to Moldova, he will immediately absorb the Transnistria breakaway region. That would put him on the border of Hungary where Orban (pro-Putin) just claimed victory in the election

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I think the election result in Hungary means Putin will feel no immediate need to expand there. Orban is already a Russian puppet, and Putin can treat Hungary as he does Belarus. However, Russian success in Ukraine would mean Moldova was threatened on all sides.

I think there is a far greater risk to the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. As a result of past Soviet emigration policy, all three have high levels of ethnic Russian population, and Riga was a major Soviet naval base.

Of course, all three are members of NATO. But NATO has shown itself to be weak, indecisive, and unwilling to act. Putin may decide that his foreign policy is in tatters anyway. If he takes a gamble and succeeds, NATO is finished, and he can do what he likes in Europe. If he fails, his troops will just be beaten back to the Russian border, and he is no worse off. Come what may, NATO will not invade Russia - the nuclear threat is too high.

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Thatā€™s not the vibe I got of this whole thing so far. NATO has been very careful, because NATO declaring war on Russia might drop us right into WW3. But I have the feeling that right now, after Russia has demonstrated just how disastrously ineffective its military is, many NATO states would almost welcome excuse to enter the conflict legally.
I really donā€™t think that Putin will dare to poke the giant at this moment. Not when Russiaā€™s at its most vulnerable since the fall of the soviet union. If thereā€™s a legitimate invokation of article 5, NATO would jump on it at this time.

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Some NATO states would. Others are doubtful, and some (Hungary, for instance) would almost certainly refuse to act. And with that, NATO would fracture.

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It is conceivable that Hungary would refuse to follow an A51 in the current circumstances, but there would be economical consequences.
Germany, France, the US and most certainly all members bordering on Russia would be in. They wouldnā€™t need much more. I doubt the UK would refuse if the US picks up the call.
Of course, thereā€™s the possibility that itā€™s going to take a while, and another Trump gets elected in the US, in which case everything will suddenly become a lot more interesting againā€¦

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The UK are like Terry Pratchettā€™s dwarves. If they donā€™t get a justified reason for a war every so often, they start fighting amongst themselves.

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For those who would like an *alternative frontline POV for what is happening on the far western side of Ukraine, I would try searching beyond mainstream media for recent civilian interviews with this claimed independant journalist.
(youtube Patrick Lancaster) My impressions were these were true interviews from within the conflict zonesā€¦but then againā€¦who knows.

*EDITED for clarification.

Iā€™ve been unable to find anything about Patrick Lancaster in an authoritative news source I would trust.

Bear in mind, thereā€™s an information war going on, as well as the physical one on the ground. Once you move away from trusted sources, almost everything you find is likely to be propaganda. There are no ā€œindependentā€ journalists reporting from Donbas or Mariupol. Those places are now Russian controlled war zones, and you canā€™t get in or out without Russian approval.

I did find this piece, which suggests that for years Patrick Lancaster has been an apologist for Russian atrocities, but itā€™s no more trustworthy than Patrick Lancaster himself.

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